Longhorns seek turnaround against Red Raiders
NCAA Basketball Betting Lines
01/27/2010 - Austin, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The suddenly struggling Texas Longhorns welcome the Texas Tech Red Raiders to Austin this evening, for a Big 12 showdown at the Erwin Center.
Rick Barnes' Longhorns won their first 17 games on the season and as a result, ascended the national rankings and took over the top spot last week. However, their reign atop the national polls was short-lived as back-to-back road losses at Kansas State (71-62) and Connecticut (88-74) caused the team to tumble all the way to the sixth spot in the newest poll. Still, Texas returns home where it is a perfect 11-0 on the season and an impressive 72-5 over the last five seasons.
The Red Raiders would like nothing better than to continue Texas' downward spiral. Texas Tech is 14-5 on the season and brings a modest two-game win streak into this contest, with wins last week over Iowa State (78-71) and most recently, Oklahoma (75-65).
This is the 124th all-time meeting between these two instate rivals, with Texas holding a 70-53 advantage. The Longhorns are 25-4 against the Red Raiders since the formation of the Big 12 and have won 13 straight against Tech at the Erwin Center.
The Red Raiders got off to a horrific start against the Sooners last time out, connecting on just 25 percent of their shots in the first half (8-of-32) and trailed by eight points at the break. The second half however, was a different story, as Tech converted 51.6 percent from the floor, including 7-of-9 from behind the arc, to take a 10-point win. Mike Singletary was dominant in the win, finishing with a double-double of 24 points and 10 rebounds. David Tairu was instrumental off the bench again with 18 points in 21 minutes of action, while Nick Okorie chipped in with 10. The kind of offensive proficiency shown in the second half against Oklahoma was nothing new for this team, as Tech is averaging a steady 78.0 ppg this year, on .442 shooting. Singletary leads the way both in scoring and rebounding at 15.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per outing. Point guard John Roberson is both a solid scorer (13.8 ppg) and deft distributor (103 assists). Tairu provides an offensive spark as well, with 11.3 ppg, on .518 shooting.
The Longhorns turned the ball over 19 times and were outscored at the free- throw line, 26-9 in their loss at UConn over the weekend. To make matters worse, Texas was caught off-guard by the hot-shooting Huskies, who delivered on almost 55 percent of their shots. Damion James did his best to keep his team in the contest, leading the way with 23 points. Avery Bradley added 15, but the there was little offensive support elsewhere. Offensive depth is something that Texas has been able to count on for much of the season. Despite the recent setbacks, the team remains an explosive unit, averaging 85.2 ppg on a solid .484 shooting. James is one of the Big 12's top low post performers, averaging a double-double with team-highs of 17.6 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. Bradley is next in the scoring column at 12.3 ppg and is followed closely by center Dexter Pittman at 12.1 ppg.
Albuquerque, NM (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first team in the nation to hit the 20- win plateau this season, the 12th-ranked BYU Cougars try to add to their 15- game win streak tonight as they tangle with the 23rd-ranked Lobos of New Mexico in a Mou
<< Bragging rights on line in SEC clash between 'Dores and Vols
Knoxville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 21st-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores have
quietly strung together nine consecutive victories, and they will attempt to
run the streak to double digits tonight against the 14th-ranked Tennessee
Volunteers in an
<< Owls visit 49ers in Atlantic 10 showdown
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Temple owns its highest national ranking
since the 1999-2000 season, and the 15th-ranked Owls fly into Charlotte
tonight for an Atlantic 10 Conference clash with the 49ers.
Temple has won 13 of its last 14 ga
<< Irish to try their luck in Big East clash with third-ranked Wildcats
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-ranked Villanova Wildcats
welcome the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to Philadelphia for what figures to be
an entertaining Big East Conference battle.
Notre Dame halted a two-game losing streak on Sa
<< Bulls, Thunder clash at Ford Center
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls have finally found their groove away from
home and hope to continue moving in the right direction in Oklahoma City on
Wednesday night.
After starting 0-2 on a season-long seven-game road trip and fal
Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Having regained their swagger, the 19th- ranked Connecticut Huskies now take aim at the first true road win of the season against the Providence Friars tonight in a Big East tussle at the Dunkin' Donuts Center.
No. 8 Duke plays host to ACC rival Florida State >>
Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In what seems to be a wide-open ACC this year,
two of the teams vying for the conference crown will meet up in Durham this
evening, as the eighth-ranked Duke Blue Devils play host to the Florida State
Seminoles at
Buckeyes visit Hawkeyes in Big Ten battle >>
Iowa City, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 20th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes return
back to Big Ten play tonight, as they invade Carver-Hawkeye Arena to take on
the Iowa Hawkeyes.
OSU took a quick break from its league schedule on Saturday and suffe
Bucks host 76ers in Brew City >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of teams on the outside looking in at the Eastern
Conference playoff picture meet in Brew City tonight as the Milwaukee Bucks
play host the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Bucks, who are coming off a tough loss in D
Raptors welcome Heat to Air Canada Centre >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Raptors aim to maintain their strong recent
play on their home court when the Miami Heat enter the Air Canada Centre
tonight for a matchup between teams jockeying for position in the Eastern
Confere
Matt Kenseth And Kevin Harvick Favorites To Take NASCAR Nextel Cup Championship
(September 15)—The NASCAR season has hit the homestretch with the opening event on this year’s Chase for the Cup taking place this weekend at the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway. With 10 races remaining to determine the Cup Series champion, leading online sportsbook MySportsbook.com today announced odds on all 10 Chase qualifying drivers capturing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship.
One of the largest sportsbook sites on the Internet, MySportsbook.com currently lists the top two drivers in the point standings as the early favorites to win the Nextel Cup. Entering the Chase for the Cup with a slim five-point lead in the point standings, 2003 NASCAR champ Matt Kenseth has been made a slight favorite to win his second Cup at 7/2 betting odds. 2001 Cup Rookie of the Year Kevin Harvick has betting odds listed at 5/2 and four-time NASCAR champion Jeff Gordon is listed at 6/1 to capture the Nextel Cup this year.
Hoping to follow in the footsteps of his legendary father who won six NASCAR titles, Dale Earnhardt Jr. stands at 8/1 to breakthrough with his first Cup victory. Staying with the family theme, MySportsbook.com lists 2005 Rookie of the Year Kyle Busch at 14/1 to succeed big brother Kurt’s 2004 NASCAR title. While Kasey Kahne was the final driver to qualify for the Chase with a third place finish last week, the oddsmakers give him a fighting chance at 10/1 mainly due to several mile-and-a-half tracks remaining on the schedule. Despite going winless on the NASCAR circuit this season, Jeff Burton enters the Chase at 5/1 to capture the Cup title. Meanwhile, rookie Denny Hamlin is 4/1 to win the championship, while veteran driver Mark Martin enters the Chase for the Cup as a 15/1 long shot to win his first NASCAR title in his 24th and final season.
MySportsbook.com will offer comprehensive Nascar betting lines on every race remaining on the Nextel Cup series including driver match-ups, props and odds to win each race. For a complete list of NASCAR odds, please visit www.MySportsbook.com.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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